Despite permutations in some quarters that the chances for re-election of Governor Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom State is very slim, I can authoritatively submit that Udom Emmanuel will win popular votes at the 2019 governorship election with the following reasons:
1. PDP STRUCTURES IN AKWA IBOM STATE ARE INTACT
No political party have ever win elections without party structures. On this, PDP has an upper hand. The Peoples Democratic Party in Akwa Ibom State have structures in all the 31 local government area and 329 wards in the state.
That is a political capital for the party as each of the officer in the party has the potential to influence his or her family members, friends, church members, club and organization members to vote for the party.
2. COUNCIL CHAIRMEN AND COUNCILLORS
Before the 2019 general election, the elected Chairmen of Council, Councillors and Supervisors will be sworn-in into office and as government that is closer to the grassroots, they will have financial muscle to mobilize their wards and constituency to vote for the party that have given them the opportunity to serve their people.
Don't forget that Council boss and Councillors have many followers in their respective wards and this will be to the advantage of the governor.
3. NATIONAL AND STATE ASSEMBLY MEMBERS
The influence of parliamentarians in any election cannot be over-emphasized as they have the political gut to influence the constituents that they represented. As it is today, the Peoples Democratic Party in Akwa Ibom State can boast of 2 influential Senators, 9 Members of the Federal House and 25 out of 26 House of
Assembly members representing their constituencies. These leaders have political value and can influence the result of any election as so many of them will seek mandate of the party for a second term and will mobilize support for their candidates at the election. They have the financial muscles and will be given support by the campaign team.
4. PARTY LEADERS AND STAKEHOLDERS
The Peoples Democratic Party can boast of party leaders, elders and stakeholders across the 31 local government area in the state.
They include former leaders who have served under the party flagship, former appointees including board members, commissioners, founding members of the Party and senior citizens who are in support of the Party and the Governor.
These categories of stakeholders also have people who they influence from the local government to the ward down to the units.
Some of them have overbearing influence on the electorates and these will speak at the election especially when they are fully mobilized.
5. POLITICAL APPOINTEES OF AKWA IBOM STATE GOVERNMENT
This is another great advantage to the Governor as over 97% of his appointees will be seriously committed to the re-election of their principal for them to also maintain their offices.
We saw it at the last election and the coming election will not be an exemption. Commissioners, Special Advisers, Honorary Special Advisers, Senior Special Assistants, Special Assistants, Board Chairmen and members, Government Parastatals, Commissions, and their retinue of Personal Assistants will count a great deal during the election.
These men and women have followers and loyalists who believe in what their leaders believe and will do their bidding during the election.
5. YOUTH LEADERS AND STUDENT COMMUNITY
The result of any election be it at the federal, state, local government, ward or unit is mostly influence by youth and students. You can't rule them out as they will always influence the result of the elections at the Polling Units. They are the main actors at the field in any election.
Today in Akwa Ibom State, we have very strong and vibrant youth leaders with overbearing influence among their contemporaries.
The youth structure of the Peoples Democratic Party, the newly inaugurated National Youth Council of Nigeria (NYCN) and the Youth Caucus which is the apex socio-political youth organization in the state are all to the advantage of the governor. The Dakkada Ambassadors, the Forum of Village Youth, and other structures of the party will work in favour of the governor.
7. WOMEN GROUPS
Today, women have dominated the political space and are easily mobilize for political activities. In the present Akwa Ibom State, women are more enlightened about politics and why they should be actively involved.
That is more reason that in every political gathering, you have more than 60% women in attendance superseding the 30% Affirmative Action for Women participation in politics.
That is an added advantage to the Peoples Democratic Party. The Udom Emmanuel led administration have so many empowerment programs for women and this is very dear to their heart.
An average woman in the street and in the village doesn't know any other political party than PDP. Any time a political party is mentioned, what reflect in their memory is PDP. No wonder the governor say that "PDP is like a religion in Akwa Ibom State."
This is to the advantage of the Party. When former Governor and now Senate Minority Leader, Sen. Godswill Akpabio was in power, the women were very familiar with that name.
Today, the name Akpabio has been substituted with another brand "Udom" and hardly you can sell a strange name to these women. If you doubt it, just go to a community and ask the women to come out that government will visit them, the first thing that come to their memory is UDOM.
This name is recorded in their memory and until Udom leave office, it will be difficult to convince them to accept another name. This is a political advantage to the Governor.
8. THE GOD FACTOR
It is recorded in the scripture that "Except the Lord build the house, the workman labour but in vain." In all political permutations, the God factor cannot be ruled out. There is a popular saying that "Man proposes but God disposes" and this will play important role in 2019 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State.
When he came on board, many prophesied that he will never be the governor of Akwa Ibom State but God proved them wrong.
His election was challenged at the Tribunal, Court of Appeal and Supreme Court but the Supreme God showed up. That is behind us and today he is the Governor.
The same God of justice that gave Obong Victor Attah and Senator Godswill Akpabio second term mandate in office will also grant Deacon Udom Emmanuel a second term as the governor of Akwa Ibom State. That is the God factor of the whole political debate.
Eket Senatorial District MUST complete their second term like others and the only man that will champion that cause is Deacon Udom Gabriel Emmanuel.
With the above personal analysis, I have been able to convince you that UDOM EMMANUEL will be overwhelmingly re-elected for a second term in office.
My advise to the Governor is that he should extend a hand of fellowship to more people and stakeholders of the party who might have been wrong in one way or the other.
I know government cannot accommodate everybody but giving them a listening ears will save us from some of the misinformation spread by mischief makers.
Like the governor said on Tuesday that everybody including a mad man on the street have political value, I want to beckon on him not to underrate anyone but to create more rooms to accommodate some interest. Politics is all about interest but above all, the interest of Akwa Ibom people should be paramount.
By Ubong Creativity David
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