I have been following politics both in Akwa Ibom State and
Nigeria since the Babangida era. From my days in the primary through secondary
schools, I can't remember any of my friends who developed the level of
passionate interest and undettered curiosity I had in issues bordering on
politics, election and governance.
I can still see myself as a young boy hanging around the window
as Obong Akpan Isemin accompanied by Chief I. U. Iyanam addressed members of the
National Republican Convention(NRC) at Central School, Oyubia. I can recollect
a similar exercise by Dr. Mfon Amana as they campaigned vigorously to win their
party's gubernatorial ticket. That stylish poster of the handsome Arc. Ekong
Etuk of the Social Democratic Party(SDP) is forever etched in my consciousness.
In 1993, l was in Oron Sports Stadium when Chief MKO Abiola
landed in a helicopter to address a mammoth crowd of supporters. I wasn't just
there, I frantically pushed myself forward to both hear and see the man.It was
a memorable experience. To think that I travelled all the way from Okossi in
Urueoffong/Oruko LGA to attend that political rally when I wasn't yet eligible
to vote in state organised elections reveals something about my life's passion.
From secondary school through university, I followed national
politics basically through my romance with newspapers and magazines while I was
introduced into the rudiments of state and local politics through privileged
access to mentors and tested politicians.
As an undergraduate, I was privileged to relate with and learn
from one of the best political tacticians in Akwa Ibom State, Barr. Effiong Oquong . He was already an experienced
politician and an aspirant to the office of Chairman, Urueoffong/Oruko Local
Government Council. One day, in the University of Uyo main campus, he told me:
"Don't ever play politics with sentiments if you want to
succeed as a politician". He went ahead to illustrate it thus:
"If your brother contests an election and you know he won't
win, don't support him just because he's your brother if your support cannot
deliver victory to him. Support the winning side even though your brother
doesn't understand. It's better for your brother to quarrel with you today and
you lift him out of political pit tomorrow than for sentiments to drive you
into the pit with him. That way, you won't have the wherewithal to extend the
kind of help which will lift him out of the pit since both of you would be in
need of help"
I was an undergraduate and a mere students leader. I don't know
if he knew I would become a politician. But those words and many others helped
to shape my political orientation.
Beyond the wisdom for political decisions, the predictability of
electoral outcomes is also embedded in that wise counsel.
Sometimes, I support candidates for pride or on sentiments when
I don't have any interest whether personal or communal to protect. But I can
say with the benefit of hindsight, barring the intervention of providence,
every election is predictable. Most times, God reveals the winner of a contest
ahead of time. But you must be honest, dispassionate, sensitive, analytical,
experienced and realistic to pick the clear signals. No doubt, there are
exceptions to the rule as He may decide to rubbish human calculations.
People have difficulty reading or understanding the handwriting
on the wall because they are blinded by sentiments, obsessed with personal
interests or incapacitated by naivety.
Another factor that makes the outcomes of elections somewhat
unpredictable is rigging. But even this factor can most times be predicted by
the experienced.
The truth is that many times, for certain reasons, political
decisions aren't easy to make. You may need to engage courage and truth to get
it right.
Anyone who eschews sentiments would have reasonably conceded
that for 2019, both in Akwa Ibom State and Nigeria,the All Progressives
Congress(APC) holds all the aces. I will be analysing the bases of my
conclusion in the days ahead.
You can choose to follow sentiments, entertain yourself, accept
reality or hope for a miracle(which is possible). Humanly speaking, elections
have never been as predictable as the ones holding in 2019.
Omen Bassey.
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