By George Onmonya Daniel
A lot of people have expressed their views on how and why Goodluck Jonathan lost the 2015 presidential election to President Muhammadu Buhari, even some of the actors who participated directly in the election or who were close to Goodluck Jonathan.
I don't have to read Olusegun Adeniyi's book, Against The Run Of Play, to tell you why Goodluck lost the election. I followed it from the beginning and was part and parcel of it as a journalist.
Goodluck Jonathan became enemy number one of the north when his boss Umar Musa Yar'adua was ill. The politics of the Umar Musa Yar'adua cabal gave Goodluck Jonathan so much bad blood.
It wasn't any fault of President Jonathan but that of politics of religion, regionalism and tribalism that is peculiar with Nigeria.
In fact the North's interpretation of the whole drama was that it was all a grand plan. Some people said Olusegun Obasanjo knew Umar Musa Yar'adua was going to die and it was his grand plan to make Goodluck Jonathan President and others were saying Umar Musa Yar'adua was poisoned to pave way for Goodluck.
In fact before Yar'adua died, the people who were in his cabinet who asked that the right thing be done became traitors and were hated, one of such was Dora Akunliyi.
The people however, who really turned the North against Goodluck Jonathan were his party members, the PDP.
These group of people felt Goodluck Jonathan should step down for them after Yar'adua's term elapsed when the man finally died after one of the biggest drama in the presidency.
These actors are Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, IBB and a certain Adamu Ciroma who formed the Northern Alliance. The politics was that it was the turn of the north.
In the end Atiku Abubakar ended up as the man they finally chose to represent them at the primaries after a very bitter campaign and image battering and creating an impression that the north was being robbed.
When Goodluck Jonathan finally emerged the candidate to represent the PDP in the 2011 presidential election ahead of Atiku Abubakar, the Muslim north was already completely poisoned against Goodluck.
They would have preferred an Atiku Abubakar they hated so much few years ago for sticking with President Olusegun Obasanjo, a man they lied against that he was homosexual just because he didn't take over from Obasanjo when they felt he had the chance.
When Goodluck Jonathan won the election in 2011, the hate campaign and hatred for him manifested into the killing of Christians and others living in the north who were non-indigenous.
The violence was widespread, from Kano to Katsina, Zamfara to Sokoto, Borno to Yobe and down to Bauchi and Kaduna.
Hundreds were brutally killed. Goodluck Jonathan had already become No. 1 enemy of the Northern Muslim masses.
Had Goodluck Jonathan lost the primaries and Atiku Abubakar emerged as the PDP candidate and defeated Buhari, we would have been saved the mayhem that followed after the 2011 election result was announced.
In fact Boko Haram bomb blasts started in 2011 about the time of the preparations for the election and one of their early bombing was some INEC office in Suleja if my memory serves me right.
But I cannot say Boko Haram have any link with the election, all I can say is that the terrorist group were trying to become popular and they would bomb anything and anywhere that would make headline.
The narration later that Goodluck hate was because he didn't fight Boko Haram in the north east was just a excuse created by the opposition to dethrone him.
Goodluck Jonathan's hate has nothing to do with insecurity but rather the insecurity was widely used against him by a calculating opposition who were more politically savvy than Goodluck Jonathan's people who had become rich, arrogant and complacent.
There was so much money flying around and instead of work to ensure they win the election, everyone was money hunting.
These were the remote causes of why Goodluck Jonathan lost the election in 2015.
THE IMMEDIATE CAUSES WHY GOODLUCK JONATHAN LOST 2015 ELECTION
In fact the immediate causes why Goodluck Jonathan lost the 2015 presidential election had nothing to do with his wife.
In fact I think despite her bad English and all her imperfection, hate her, love her, she did her best for her husband. She was hated because her husband was hated.
Now what nailed Goodluck Jonathan was the 7 governors campaign against him and later 5 defected to the All Progressive Congress. Then the working of Olusegun Obasanjo against his own party because of his problems with Jonathan.
The PDP problem was an internal problem and when it could not be resolved some of the actors teamed up against their own with the opposition.
But Bola Ahmed Tinubu was a master planner. He waited and cashed in on the PDP misfortunes, was instrumental in the making of Sanusi Lamido Sanusi Emir of Kano when he fell out with Goodluck Jonathan.
What where Jonathan's campaign people doing all these while, they were busy sharing money and making money.
Finally Olufemi Olu-Kayode was appointed the spokesperson of the PDP and if not for him the PDP wouldn't have gone anywhere.
When Tinubu's party merged with Buhari's APC, it was obvious that it was going to be a fiercely contested one.
The South West mostly idealistic people see the government as corrupt and incompetent and it was pronounced in the campaign.
When the Yorubas and Hausas merged, and Goodluck lost the elite in Hausa land or rather the elite had no choice with BuHari's overwhelming support, it was the beginning of the end.
When the Goodluck Jonathan's people did not recognize the power of the social media, the APC were using every avenue to campaign and the social media was instrumental in their victory.
The merger between the Yoruba and Hausa-Fulanis sealed Jonathan's victory as some of his Northern people deserted him.
Goodluck Jonathan lost in the Middle Belt because of his men imposition of unpopular candidates, unpaid salaries as they try to cart away with so much money after most of their 2nd terms and perceptions that the government is corrupt.
Goodluck Jonathan's lack of understanding of what atmosphere and his inexperience caused him the election. The likes of Olusegun Obasanjo would have done anything to rig the election to their advantage but Goodluck being inexperienced watched as the election was rigged against him as his people didn't make much effort to out rig the opposition.
The money for the election were mostly pocketed and Goodluck men were already thinking of the enjoyment with or without him.
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